Forecast: Search only ad space to increase in '09

In an updated forecast, Interpublic is now predicting that online search marketing will be the only ad category to expand by year's end. According to the forecast the online search spend will increase by just over 3% by the end of 2009.

by Kristina Knight

This forecast is the first to use actual advertising revenue from media partners and to compare that with estimates of advertising spending from media buyers. Interpublic introduced their new methodology earlier this year.

Besides online search, the forecast predicts that online direct response marketing, a new category in 2009, will increase by 2.9%. Online direct response advertising encompasses search, lead generation and online directories (yellow pages); the category is expected to increase by more than 10% by 2014. Meanwhile national digital/online media, which includes rich media, online video, classified ads, email, display and mobile advertising, will decrease by more than 11%. The category is only expected to bring in $5.5 billion in 2009, although this will rebound as we move forward. According to forecasters, this category will grow at a 4% compounded rate each year.

Finally, local digital/online, which includes local television, radio and newspapers, will decrease by more than 5% in 2009, but will rebound by about 6% through 2014.

On the whole, the online ad spend is expected to decrease by about 2.2% this year ($23 billion), but over the next five years is expected to grow by about 8% each year.

Tags: advertising forecast, advertising prediction, display advertising, Interpublic, mobile marketing, online advertising, online video, rich media advertising, search marketing, viral marketing